UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
Halifax, Canada
4 Oct 2014
Lightweight
VS
94%
Aubin-Mercier
6%
Lindsey
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:22
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aubin-Mercier
Aubin-Mercier is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aubin-Mercier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Striking split: Lindsey throws more volume but Aubin-Mercier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lindsey has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aubin-Mercier
Lindsey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
37+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Aubin-Mercier
Lindsey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
1.2
49.0
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
61
Momentum Score
0
Aubin-Mercier
Lindsey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.8
53%
Strike Accuracy
39%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
2
3
Body
4
1
Leg
7
RangeRange
15Distance11
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Aubin-Mercier
Lindsey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aubin-Mercier
Lindsey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
44
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/16 fights
Chin rating based on
3/19 fights
Aubin-Mercier
Lindsey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
Aubin-Mercier
Lindsey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aubin-Mercier
Lindsey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Aubin-MercierLindsey
Strike Zones
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedLindsey
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the head (73% of attacks) — Lindsey absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Lindsey targets the legs (54% of attacks) — Aubin-Mercier absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aubin-Mercier
RND
Lindsey
0/0R00/0
Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Lindsey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Aubin-Mercier · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
Lindsey · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Joe DuffyRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
L · KO · R3
Jon TuckRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06