UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Aug 2024
Welterweight
VS
47%
Ferguson
53%
Chiesa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:44
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Michael
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20 – 7
Well-Rounded4-fight win streak38 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'1"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiesa

This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 47% vs Chiesa at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Chiesa has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ferguson
Chiesa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
76"+
Reach
75"
42
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Chiesa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
50.7
54.2
Performance Avg
53.3
49
Quality of Victory
43
52
Momentum Score
50
Ferguson
Chiesa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
1
Body
1
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Chiesa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Chiesa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
36
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
22/27 fights
Ferguson
Chiesa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
50
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Ferguson
Chiesa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
9
6
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferguson
Chiesa
Striking3.3 / 1.4Volume3.4 / 4.6Grappling3.8 / 5.8Wrestling2.7 / 4.0Submission4.0 / 6.0Pressure6.1 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Ferguson
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Ferguson
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY5LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Chiesa
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY5LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Chiesa targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferguson
RND
Chiesa
0/0R00/0

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Chiesa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W4.5W4.8L4.5W5.7W6.2W1.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W4.7W5.1W3.0L6.6L2.1L5.5W6.1W4.7W5.7W2012-062015-042019-072024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Chiesa · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

News & Media

Tony Ferguson · Michael Chiesa
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