METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Aug 2024
Welterweight
VS
47%
Ferguson
53%
Chiesa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:44
★ Official Result
Michael ChiesawinsSubmissionR1 · 3:44
def. Tony Ferguson · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Chiesa
→
Actual result
Chiesa wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 47% vs Chiesa at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chiesa has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonChiesa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Chiesa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
76"+
Reach
75"
42
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Chiesa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
50.7
54.2
Performance Avg
53.3
49
Quality of Victory
43
52
Momentum Score
50
Ferguson
Chiesa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
6.3
3.4
Style: Volume
4.6
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
1
Body
1
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Chiesa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
5.8
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.0
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.0
6
Submission wins
9
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Chiesa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
36
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
22/27 fights
Ferguson
Chiesa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
50
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Ferguson
Chiesa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
9
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Chiesa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
FergusonChiesa
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedChiesa
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Chiesa targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Chiesa
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinSubmission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07