UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
Atlantic City, USA
22 Jun 2012
Welterweight
VS
88%
Story
12%
Jardine
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RS
Rick Story
"The Horror"
19 – 9
5'9"71" reachSouthpaw41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
BJ
Brock Jardine
"The Machine"
12 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox5'11"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Story

Story is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Story has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.

Story has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Story's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Story
Jardine
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
41
Age
+40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Story
Jardine
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.0
2.4
46.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
65
Momentum Score
0
Story
Jardine
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.6
42%
Strike Accuracy
39%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
13
Body
2
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance9
3Clinch0
10Ground0
Story
Jardine
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Story
Jardine
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/28 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Story
Jardine
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Story
Jardine
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Story
Jardine
Striking2.9 / 0.0Volume6.6 / 0.0Grappling2.9 / 0.0Wrestling2.0 / 0.0Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Story
Strike Zones
Jardine
Story
Attacking
7HEAD13BODY4LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Jardine
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD13BODY4LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Story targets the body (54% of attacks) — Jardine absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Jardine targets the head (67% of attacks) — Story absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Story
RND
Jardine
0/0R00/0

Story · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.8L5.2W5.6W4.5W2.8L2009-062010-122012-102014-072016-08
WinLossTrend

Jardine · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0105.5L1.5L2012-062013-02
WinLossTrend

Story · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R5
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Leonardo MafraRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03

Jardine · Last 2

L · Sub · R1
Kenny RobertsonRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06

News & Media

Rick Story · Brock Jardine
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