UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens
Tampa, USA
7 Feb 2009
Heavyweight
VS
93%
Velasquez
7%
Stojnic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Velasquez
Velasquez is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Velasquez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 62 points.
Velasquez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Velasquez's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stojnic has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Velasquez
Stojnic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
77"
Reach
43+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Velasquez
Stojnic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.8
1.8
69.4
Performance Avg
0.0
62
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Velasquez
Stojnic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
0.2
59%
Strike Accuracy
21%
9.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
1
6
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance0
4Clinch1
10Ground0
Velasquez
Stojnic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Velasquez
Stojnic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/17 fights
Chin rating based on
2/16 fights
Velasquez
Stojnic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Velasquez
Stojnic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
0%
10
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Velasquez
Stojnic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
VelasquezStojnic
Strike Zones
Velasquez
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedStojnic
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Velasquez targets the head (60% of attacks) — Stojnic absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Stojnic targets the head (100% of attacks) — Velasquez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Velasquez
RND
Stojnic
0/0R00/0
Velasquez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Stojnic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Velasquez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Francis NgannouRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.8Submission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R5
Junior Dos SantosRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
Stojnic · Last 2
L · Sub · R2
Stefan StruveRating 2.8Submission
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06
L · KO · R2
Cain VelasquezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens · 2009-02