UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2022
Featherweight
VS
87%
Brown
13%
Silva
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
Brown is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brown has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Striking split: Brown throws more volume but Silva connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Silva has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brown
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
36+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.8
4.3
34.0
Performance Avg
0.0
32
Quality of Victory
0
40
Momentum Score
0
Brown
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
54%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
1Clinch1
5Ground0
Brown
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/28 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Brown
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
Brown
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BrownSilva
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSilva
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (86% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (50% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Sub · R2
Bill AlgeoRating 3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Sub · R3
Erik SilvaRating 5.5Submission
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Shayilan NuerdanbiekeRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Silva · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Francis MarshallRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Muhammad NaimovRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 4Submission
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12