UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Middleweight
VS
44%
Craig
56%
Borralho
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:10
Paul
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17 – 10
6'3"76" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 49
Caio
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
18 – 2
Well-Rounded33 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'1"
CFR 63

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Borralho

This is a genuine toss-up — Craig at 44% vs Borralho at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Craig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Striking split: Craig throws more volume but Borralho connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Craig's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Craig
Borralho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
75"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Craig
Borralho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
62.8
50.4
Performance Avg
54.6
52
Quality of Victory
32
46
Momentum Score
100
Craig
Borralho
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
63%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
15
4
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance16
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Craig
Borralho
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Craig
Borralho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
6
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
9/20 fights
Craig
Borralho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Craig
Borralho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
25%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Craig
Borralho
Striking4.3 / 3.0Volume0.9 / 7.8Grappling5.3 / 2.8Wrestling3.7 / 2.0Submission6.7 / 1.3Pressure8.4 / 4.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.8
Craig
Strike Zones
Borralho
Craig
Attacking
1HEAD4BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Borralho
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD4BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Craig targets the body (57% of attacks) — Borralho absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Borralho targets the head (94% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 94% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Craig
RND
Borralho
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Craig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W2.5L2.4L7.0W5.5L6.8W2.4L5.0W5.0W5.2W6.3W6.2W6.3L2.3L6.2W4.1L4.1L7.2L2.3L2016-122019-032021-062023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Borralho · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W4.5W5.5W6.2W5.3W6.0W5.5W6.9L5.5W2022-042023-042024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Craig · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

Borralho · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Reinier de RidderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R5
Nassourdine ImavovRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R5
Jared CannonierRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
W · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

News & Media

Paul Craig · Caio Borralho
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