UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
Sydney, Australia
26 Feb 2011
Lightweight
VS
56%
Sotiropoulos
44%
Siver
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sotiropoulos
This is a genuine toss-up — Sotiropoulos at 56% vs Siver at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Siver has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sotiropoulos's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Siver has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Sotiropoulos
Siver
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
70"
48
Age
+47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sotiropoulos
Siver
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
14.3
51.8
Performance Avg
46.1
44
Quality of Victory
37
51
Momentum Score
43
Sotiropoulos
Siver
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.5
28%
Strike Accuracy
34%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
16
1
Body
6
3
Leg
12
RangeRange
15Distance34
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Sotiropoulos
Siver
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sotiropoulos
Siver
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
4
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/21 fights
Chin rating based on
21/34 fights
Sotiropoulos
Siver
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
43
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Sotiropoulos
Siver
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
42%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sotiropoulos
Siver
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
SotiropoulosSiver
Strike Zones
Sotiropoulos
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedSiver
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sotiropoulos targets the head (73% of attacks) — Siver absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Siver targets the head (47% of attacks) — Sotiropoulos absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sotiropoulos
RND
Siver
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Sotiropoulos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Siver · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Sotiropoulos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
KJ NoonsRating 5.5Decision
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · KO · R3
Ross PearsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Sub · R2
Joe LauzonRating 5.2Submission
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
Siver · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
BJ PennRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Tatsuya KawajiriRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
Upcoming
Manvel GamburyanUFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12