UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Salt Lake City, USA
20 Aug 2022
Middleweight
VS
61%
Costa
39%
Rockhold
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
Costa holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Rockhold has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rockhold has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Striking split: Costa throws more volume but Rockhold connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rockhold has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Costa
Rockhold
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
+77"
35+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Costa
Rockhold
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.3
35.5
52.9
Performance Avg
60.7
44
Quality of Victory
65
59
Momentum Score
85
Costa
Rockhold
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.7
59%
Strike Accuracy
62%
7.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
6
6
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance8
0Clinch0
3Ground1
Costa
Rockhold
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Costa
Rockhold
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
10
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
11/22 fights
Costa
Rockhold
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
85
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Costa
Rockhold
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Rockhold
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.1
CostaRockhold
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedRockhold
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (63% of attacks) — Rockhold absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Rockhold targets the head (67% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Rockhold
0/0R00/0
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Rockhold · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Costa · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
Rockhold · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 6.5Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Jan BlachowiczRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · KO · R2
David BranchRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Michael BispingRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06