METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Welterweight
VS
43%
Griffin
57%
Valenzuela
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Victor ValenzuelawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Max Griffin · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Valenzuela
→
Actual result
Valenzuela wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Griffin at 43% vs Valenzuela at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Griffin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Griffin's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GriffinValenzuela
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Griffin
Valenzuela
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
40
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Griffin
Valenzuela
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
60.8
39.0
Performance Avg
55.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
74
Momentum Score
100
Griffin
Valenzuela
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.6
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
3.9
Style: Pressure
3.0
5.8
Style: Volume
10.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
22
1
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance26
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Griffin
Valenzuela
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Griffin
Valenzuela
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/33 fights
Chin rating based on
1/18 fights
Griffin
Valenzuela
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Griffin
Valenzuela
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Griffin
Valenzuela
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
10.0
GriffinValenzuela
Strike Zones
Griffin
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedValenzuela
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Griffin targets the head (95% of attacks) — Valenzuela absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Valenzuela targets the head (76% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Griffin
RND
Valenzuela
0/0R00/0
Griffin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
Valenzuela · Last 1
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04