UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Welterweight
VS
43%
Griffin
57%
Valenzuela
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Max
Max Griffin
"Pain"
20 – 13
5'11"76" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 46
VV
Victor Valenzuela
"Psicosis"
14 – 4
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Valenzuela

This is a genuine toss-up — Griffin at 43% vs Valenzuela at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Griffin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Valenzuela has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Griffin's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Griffin
Valenzuela
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
40
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Griffin
Valenzuela
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
60.8
39.0
Performance Avg
55.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
74
Momentum Score
100
Griffin
Valenzuela
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
22
1
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance26
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Griffin
Valenzuela
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Griffin
Valenzuela
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/33 fights
Chin rating based on
1/18 fights
Griffin
Valenzuela
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Griffin
Valenzuela
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Griffin
Valenzuela
Striking4.6 / 2.0Volume5.8 / 10.0Grappling1.5 / 2.4Wrestling1.1 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
10.0
Griffin
Strike Zones
Valenzuela
Griffin
Attacking
19HEAD1BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD6BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Valenzuela
Attacking
22HEAD6BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD1BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Griffin targets the head (95% of attacks) — Valenzuela absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Valenzuela targets the head (76% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Griffin
RND
Valenzuela
0/0R00/0

Griffin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.3L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L7.0W5.4W4.5W6.1L4.6W7.6L5.9W4.8L6.2L6.8L2016-082019-022021-032024-022026-04
WinLossTrend

Griffin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesRating 7.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

Valenzuela · Last 1

W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04

News & Media

Max Griffin · Victor Valenzuela
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