UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Jan 2013
Heavyweight
VS
41%
Gonzaga
59%
Rothwell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rothwell
This is a genuine toss-up — Gonzaga at 41% vs Rothwell at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Rothwell throws more volume but Gonzaga connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gonzaga's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rothwell has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gonzaga
Rothwell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
+78"
47
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gonzaga
Rothwell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.6
27.0
53.9
Performance Avg
49.7
54
Quality of Victory
48
59
Momentum Score
45
Gonzaga
Rothwell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
46%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Gonzaga
Rothwell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
4
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gonzaga
Rothwell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
17/53 fights
Gonzaga
Rothwell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
45
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Gonzaga
Rothwell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
92%
78%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gonzaga
Rothwell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
GonzagaRothwell
Strike Zones
Gonzaga
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedRothwell
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gonzaga targets the head (75% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Rothwell targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gonzaga absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gonzaga
RND
Rothwell
0/0R00/0
Gonzaga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Rothwell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Gonzaga · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Konstantin ErokhinRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R3
Mirko FilipovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Chris BarnettRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · KO · R2
Stefan StruveRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12