METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Middleweight
VS
43%
Spicely
57%
Alvey
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:43
ES
Eric Spicely
"Zebrinha"
12 – 6
6'1"73" reachOrthodox39 yrs4-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 17
SA
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33 – 18
Well-Rounded8-fight slide40 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 23
★ Official Result
Sam AlveywinsSubmissionR1 · 2:43
def. Eric Spicely · UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alvey
→
Actual result
Alvey wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Spicely at 43% vs Alvey at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Spicely has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Spicely's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
SpicelyAlvey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Spicely
Alvey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
73"
Reach
+75"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Spicely
Alvey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
22.9
43.8
Performance Avg
44.3
54
Quality of Victory
45
52
Momentum Score
43
Spicely
Alvey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
2
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance5
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Spicely
Alvey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Spicely
Alvey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/18 fights
Chin rating based on
24/51 fights
Spicely
Alvey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
43
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Spicely
Alvey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Spicely
Alvey
Striking0.6 / 5.9Volume0.6 / 4.1Grappling8.0 / 1.8Wrestling5.6 / 1.2Submission10.0 / 1.0Pressure7.9 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Spicely
Strike Zones
Alvey
Spicely
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Alvey
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Spicely targets the head (57% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Alvey targets the head (75% of attacks) — Spicely absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Spicely
RND
Alvey
0/0R00/0

Spicely · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0101.5L5.0W5.0W2.8L3.8L2.8L5.5L2016-072017-012017-122019-06
WinLossTrend

Alvey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W1.8L5.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.4W4.5W2.8L3.0L5.5L5.9L3.3L5.5L4.1L2.5L2014-082016-072017-102020-052022-08
WinLossTrend

Spicely · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Deron WinnRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Darren StewartRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · KO · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12
L · Sub · R2
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R1
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01

Alvey · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon Jung
Decision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10

News & Media

Eric Spicely · Sam Alvey
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