UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Pittsburgh, USA
21 Feb 2016
Catch Weight
VS
83%
Garbrandt
17%
Mendes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garbrandt
Garbrandt is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garbrandt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Garbrandt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Garbrandt's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Garbrandt
Mendes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
65"
Reach
65"
34+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Garbrandt
Mendes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.6
11.3
51.6
Performance Avg
28.3
47
Quality of Victory
25
97
Momentum Score
40
Garbrandt
Mendes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
29%
7.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
5
1
Body
0
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
10Distance10
0Clinch1
1Ground0
Garbrandt
Mendes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garbrandt
Mendes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/22 fights
Chin rating based on
3/8 fights
Garbrandt
Mendes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
40
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Garbrandt
Mendes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garbrandt
Mendes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
GarbrandtMendes
Strike Zones
Garbrandt
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedMendes
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garbrandt targets the head (73% of attacks) — Mendes absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Mendes targets the legs (55% of attacks) — Garbrandt absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garbrandt
RND
Mendes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Garbrandt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Mendes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Garbrandt · Last 5
Upcoming
Adrian YanezUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Xiao LongRating 5.3Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Sub · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Brian KelleherRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Mendes · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Frankie SaenzRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02