UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
San Jose, USA
19 Nov 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Bader
43%
Brilz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:17
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
6'2"74" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 20
JB
Jason Brilz
"Hitman"
22 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'11"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bader

This is a genuine toss-up — Bader at 57% vs Brilz at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Bader has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Brilz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bader
Brilz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
71"
42+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bader
Brilz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
15.2
54.2
Performance Avg
38.1
40
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
63
Bader
Brilz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
39%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Bader
Brilz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bader
Brilz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
52
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
7/28 fights
Bader
Brilz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Bader
Brilz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
33%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bader
Brilz
Striking4.8 / 4.2Volume6.3 / 6.2Grappling2.0 / 1.6Wrestling1.4 / 1.1Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Bader
Strike Zones
Brilz
Bader
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Brilz
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brilz absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brilz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bader
RND
Brilz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Brilz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.2W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L1.5L1.5L2008-092009-092010-052011-11
WinLossTrend

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Brilz · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ryan BaderRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11
L · KO · R1
Vladimir MatyushenkoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
L · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
W · Dec · R3
Eric SchaferRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03
L · Dec · R3
Eliot MarshallRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort · 2009-09

News & Media

Ryan Bader · Jason Brilz
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