UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
Manchester, United Kingdom
8 Oct 2016
Bantamweight
VS
45%
Pickett
55%
Alcantara
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:59
BP
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
25 – 14
5'6"68" reachOrthodox47 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
IA
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
35 – 10
Well-Rounded45 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alcantara

This is a genuine toss-up — Pickett at 45% vs Alcantara at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alcantara has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Pickett's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alcantara has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pickett
Alcantara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+71"
47
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pickett
Alcantara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
16.9
36.4
Performance Avg
48.0
37
Quality of Victory
41
60
Momentum Score
49
Pickett
Alcantara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
30%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
22
1
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance10
1Clinch1
0Ground15
Pickett
Alcantara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pickett
Alcantara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
56
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/39 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Pickett
Alcantara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
49
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Pickett
Alcantara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pickett
Alcantara
Striking2.7 / 4.2Volume5.5 / 5.2Grappling3.0 / 2.8Wrestling2.1 / 2.0Submission2.0 / 2.0Pressure3.9 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
Pickett
Strike Zones
Alcantara
Pickett
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD4BODY0LEGS26 absorbed
Alcantara
Attacking
22HEAD4BODY0LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pickett targets the body (100% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Alcantara targets the head (85% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pickett
RND
Alcantara
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Pickett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0101.5L5.2W5.0W5.5L4.5W2.8L4.5W5.5L5.5L2.8L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.8L2011-112013-042014-112016-122017-03
WinLossTrend

Alcantara · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W5.2W1.8L5.5L5.0W4.2L2011-082014-022016-012018-022018-08
WinLossTrend

Pickett · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Marlon VeraRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Urijah FaberRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · Dec · R3
Francisco RiveraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07

Alcantara · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8
Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Luke SandersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03

News & Media

Brad Pickett · Iuri Alcantara
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