UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping
Sydney, Australia
7 Nov 2014
Lightweight
VS
77%
Matthews
23%
Rocha
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
Matthews is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rocha has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Rocha has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rocha has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Matthews
Rocha
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"
Reach
73"
31+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Rocha
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
16.1
48.3
Performance Avg
39.7
37
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
36
Matthews
Rocha
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
3
1
Body
1
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance6
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Matthews
Rocha
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Rocha
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Matthews
Rocha
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Matthews
Rocha
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Rocha
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MatthewsRocha
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedRocha
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (69% of attacks) — Rocha absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Rocha targets the head (50% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Rocha
0/0R00/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Rocha · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Rocha · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · 2014-11
L · KO · R1
Jonathan BrookinsRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Sub · R2
Cody McKenzieRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
L · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06