UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Lightweight
VS
46%
Silva
54%
Klose
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Klose
This is a genuine toss-up — Silva at 46% vs Klose at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Klose has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Silva's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Klose has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Silva
Klose
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
37+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Silva
Klose
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.9
56.0
46.0
Performance Avg
49.7
38
Quality of Victory
32
67
Momentum Score
99
Silva
Klose
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
17
4
Body
3
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
12Distance21
8Clinch3
4Ground0
Silva
Klose
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Silva
Klose
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
13/19 fights
Silva
Klose
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
67
99
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Silva
Klose
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
20%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Silva
Klose
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
SilvaKlose
Strike Zones
Silva
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedKlose
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (67% of attacks) — Klose absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Klose targets the head (71% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Silva
RND
Klose
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Klose · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Silva · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Claudio PuellesRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · KO · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · KO · R2
Jesse RonsonRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
Klose · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 5.1Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · KO · R1
Joe SoleckiRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 5.3Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07