UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Aug 2020
Welterweight
VS
55%
Luque
45%
Brown
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:56
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
This is a genuine toss-up — Luque at 55% vs Brown at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Luque
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+78"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luque
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.9
52.9
57.2
Performance Avg
48.7
50
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
92
Luque
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.8
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
24
4
Body
9
11
Leg
3
RangeRange
30Distance30
3Clinch6
4Ground0
Luque
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Luque
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
4
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Luque
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
92
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Luque
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
7
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.1
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
LuqueBrown
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedBrown
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (59% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (67% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BattleRating 7.3Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06