UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2017
Lightweight
VS
77%
Dariush
23%
Dunham
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dariush
Dariush is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Dunham throws more volume but Dariush connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dariush's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dunham has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dariush
Dunham
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"+
Reach
70"
37+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Dariush
Dunham
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.9
16.2
50.4
Performance Avg
40.1
39
Quality of Victory
30
100
Momentum Score
100
Dariush
Dunham
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
19
2
Body
3
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance19
3Clinch3
0Ground0
Dariush
Dunham
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dariush
Dunham
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/31 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Dariush
Dunham
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Dariush
Dunham
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
18%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dariush
Dunham
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
DariushDunham
Strike Zones
Dariush
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedDunham
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dariush targets the head (69% of attacks) — Dunham absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Dunham targets the head (86% of attacks) — Dariush absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dariush
RND
Dunham
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dariush · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Dunham · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Dariush · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 5.3Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Arman TsarukyanRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
Dunham · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Herbert BurnsRating 1.9Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · KO · R2
Francisco TrinaldoRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R1
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
Upcoming
Beneil DariushDecision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09