UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Glasgow, United Kingdom
16 Jul 2017
Bantamweight
VS
70%
Johns
30%
Morales
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BJ
Brett Johns
"The Pikey"
17 – 2
5'7"71" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
AM
Albert Morales
"The Warrior"
7 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'9"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Johns

Johns is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Morales throws more volume but Johns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Johns
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Johns
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.9
8.1
49.5
Performance Avg
23.0
35
Quality of Victory
25
65
Momentum Score
15
Johns
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
34%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
6
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance5
0Clinch0
7Ground1
Johns
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johns
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Johns
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
15
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Johns
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johns
Morales
Striking1.4 / 0.4Volume6.2 / 8.4Grappling4.6 / 2.4Wrestling3.3 / 1.7Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure4.9 / 0.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
Johns
Strike Zones
Morales
Johns
Attacking
15HEAD0BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Morales
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD0BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johns targets the head (100% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johns absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johns
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0

Johns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W4.5W5.0W6.5L6.0L5.5W5.4W2016-112017-122018-082020-07
WinLossTrend

Morales · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0102.8L4.5W5.5L5.5L2.8L2016-112017-032017-072017-122018-02
WinLossTrend

Johns · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07
W · Sub · R3
Tony GravelyRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 6
Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Sub · R1
Joe SotoRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12

Morales · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Manny BermudezRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Benito LopezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Brett JohnsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Andre SoukhamthathRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11

News & Media

Brett Johns · Albert Morales
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