UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Catch Weight
VS
96%
Almeida
4%
Turkalj
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Almeida
Almeida is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 68 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 53 points.
Almeida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Turkalj has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Almeida
Turkalj
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
79"+
Reach
78"
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Turkalj
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
3.0
61.0
Performance Avg
0.0
53
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Almeida
Turkalj
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.0
64%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
17Ground0
Almeida
Turkalj
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Almeida
Turkalj
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
42
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Almeida
Turkalj
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Almeida
Turkalj
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Turkalj
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
AlmeidaTurkalj
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTurkalj
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Turkalj absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Turkalj targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Turkalj
0/0R00/0
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Turkalj · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Almeida · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 5.8Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Curtis BlaydesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
Turkalj · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Ibo AslanRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Tyson PedroRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09