UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
Toronto, Canada
22 Sept 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
87%
Hamill
13%
Hollett
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MH
Matt Hamill
"The Hammer"
12 – 8
6'1"76" reachOrthodox49 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RH
Roger Hollett
"The Hulk"
13 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide47 yrsOrthodox5'11"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hamill

Hamill is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Hamill has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 42 points.

Hamill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hamill's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hamill
Hollett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
76"
Reach
49
Age
+47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hamill
Hollett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
2.7
51.9
Performance Avg
0.0
42
Quality of Victory
0
63
Momentum Score
0
Hamill
Hollett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
46%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
2
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance4
0Clinch0
18Ground1
Hamill
Hollett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hamill
Hollett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Hamill
Hollett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Hamill
Hollett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hamill
Hollett
Striking6.3 / 0.0Volume4.5 / 0.0Grappling1.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Hamill
Strike Zones
Hollett
Hamill
Attacking
23HEAD0BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Hollett
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD0BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hamill targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hollett absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Hollett targets the body (60% of attacks) — Hamill absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hamill
RND
Hollett
0/0R00/0

Hamill · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W5.8W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L4.5W5.5L2006-062008-042009-122011-082013-10
WinLossTrend

Hollett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.5L2012-092013-05
WinLossTrend

Hamill · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thiago SilvaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Roger HollettRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Alexander GustafssonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Quinton JacksonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05
W · Dec · R3
Tito OrtizRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10

Hollett · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Fabio MaldonadoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09

News & Media

Matt Hamill · Roger Hollett
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