UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
14 Dec 2019
Middleweight
VS
77%
Soriano
23%
Piechota
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Soriano
Soriano is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Soriano has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Soriano's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Piechota has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Soriano
Piechota
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+76"
33+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Soriano
Piechota
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.8
16.6
52.0
Performance Avg
41.5
44
Quality of Victory
43
64
Momentum Score
63
Soriano
Piechota
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.9
55%
Strike Accuracy
50%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
4
6
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance3
2Clinch4
14Ground1
Soriano
Piechota
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Soriano
Piechota
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Soriano
Piechota
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
63
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Soriano
Piechota
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Soriano
Piechota
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
SorianoPiechota
Strike Zones
Soriano
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedPiechota
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Soriano targets the head (77% of attacks) — Piechota absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Piechota targets the head (50% of attacks) — Soriano absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Soriano
RND
Piechota
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Soriano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Piechota · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Soriano · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ramiz BrahimajRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 4.9Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Miguel BaezaRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R2
Dustin StoltzfusRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Piechota · Last 5
Upcoming
Marc-Andre BarriaultUFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
L · KO · R1
Punahele SorianoRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · Sub · R2
Rodolfo VieiraRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Tim WilliamsRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02