UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
Toronto, Canada
22 Sept 2012
Featherweight
VS
42%
Swanson
58%
Oliveira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:40
Cub
Cub Swanson
31 – 14
5'8"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Charles
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37 – 11
Pressure Fighter2-fight win streak36 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 63

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

This is a genuine toss-up — Swanson at 42% vs Oliveira at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Swanson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Swanson
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+74"
42
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Swanson
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
63.3
48.8
Performance Avg
58.6
40
Quality of Victory
51
56
Momentum Score
100
Swanson
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.1
56%
Strike Accuracy
53%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Swanson
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swanson
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
5
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Swanson
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Swanson
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
84%
8
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
17
8
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Swanson
Oliveira
Striking6.2 / 3.0Volume5.2 / 2.7Grappling1.2 / 5.8Wrestling0.8 / 4.1Submission0.0 / 6.8Pressure5.3 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
Swanson
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Swanson
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Oliveira
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (83% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Swanson
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Swanson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L5.2W5.2W6.4W5.8W5.5W5.0W4.0L5.1L4.5W4.5W6.3W4.5W3.5L5.5L2.3L5.5L5.3W6.1W2.5L5.5W3.3L4.6W6.2L6.7W5.7W2011-112014-112018-042022-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.5W1.9L1.5L5.0W5.2W2.0L5.5L5.5W5.2W5.0W5.5W2.6L5.0W4.0L2.8L5.0W2.8L5.5W5.4W5.4W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.3W5.0W5.9W6.6W6.6W4.1L6.0W7.1L5.3W3.9L6.2W5.6W2010-082014-062018-062021-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Swanson · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

News & Media

Cub Swanson · Charles Oliveira
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