UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Las Vegas, USA
19 Oct 2024
Bantamweight
VS
45%
Katona
55%
Matsumoto
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matsumoto
This is a genuine toss-up — Katona at 45% vs Matsumoto at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Katona has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Matsumoto throws more volume but Katona connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Katona
Matsumoto
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
64"
Reach
+68"
34
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Katona
Matsumoto
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.2
52.4
44.0
Performance Avg
43.9
44
Quality of Victory
33
40
Momentum Score
75
Katona
Matsumoto
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.9
51%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
15
3
Body
3
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
20Distance23
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Katona
Matsumoto
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Katona
Matsumoto
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
6/19 fights
Katona
Matsumoto
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
75
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Katona
Matsumoto
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Katona
Matsumoto
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
8.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
KatonaMatsumoto
Strike Zones
Katona
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedMatsumoto
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Katona targets the head (86% of attacks) — Matsumoto absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Matsumoto targets the head (63% of attacks) — Katona absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Katona
RND
Matsumoto
0/0R00/0
Katona · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Matsumoto · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Katona · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Jean MatsumotoRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jesse ButlerRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Garrett ArmfieldRating 5.6Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Cody GibsonRating 4.7Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Matsumoto · Last 5
Upcoming
Bekzat AlmakhanUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Farid BasharatRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10