UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Hidalgo, USA
17 Sept 2016
Welterweight
VS
29%
Montano
71%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 0:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
Brown is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Montano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 61 points.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Montano's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Montano
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+78"
40
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Montano
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.3
52.9
73.3
Performance Avg
48.7
100
Quality of Victory
39
27
Momentum Score
92
Montano
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.8
39%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Montano
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Montano
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
4
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/12 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Montano
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
27
92
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Montano
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Montano
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.1
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
MontanoBrown
Strike Zones
Montano
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedBrown
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Montano targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (100% of attacks) — Montano absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Montano
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
Montano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Montano · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Max GriffinRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
L · Sub · R3
Randy BrownRating 4.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
W · Dec · R3
Enrique MarinRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · 2015-11
Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BattleRating 7.3Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06