UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
Birmingham, United Kingdom
5 Nov 2011
Welterweight
VS
63%
Alves
37%
Abedi
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alves
Alves holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Abedi has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Alves throws more volume but Abedi connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Abedi has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alves
Abedi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
42+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alves
Abedi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
9.5
47.3
Performance Avg
25.0
42
Quality of Victory
25
63
Momentum Score
33
Alves
Abedi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
9
3
Body
4
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance9
1Clinch5
12Ground0
Alves
Abedi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Abedi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Alves
Abedi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Alves
Abedi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Abedi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
AlvesAbedi
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedAbedi
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (68% of attacks) — Abedi absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Abedi targets the head (64% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Abedi
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Abedi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
Abedi · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Dylan AndrewsRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Besam YousefRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
L · Sub · R1
James HeadRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
L · Sub · R1
Thiago AlvesRating 1.5Submission
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11