UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Sao Paulo, Brazil
22 Sept 2018
Light Heavyweight
VS
28%
Henrique
72%
Spann
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Spann
Spann is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Spann has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Henrique's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spann has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Henrique
Spann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'5"
74"
Reach
+79"
32+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Henrique
Spann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
43.3
41.7
Performance Avg
54.8
47
Quality of Victory
50
52
Momentum Score
10
Henrique
Spann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.8
39%
Strike Accuracy
40%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
10
1
Body
6
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch3
6Ground11
Henrique
Spann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Henrique
Spann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
8
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
16/35 fights
Henrique
Spann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
10
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Henrique
Spann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
4
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Henrique
Spann
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
HenriqueSpann
Strike Zones
Henrique
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedSpann
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Henrique targets the head (88% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Spann targets the head (63% of attacks) — Henrique absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Henrique
RND
Spann
0/0R00/0
Henrique · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Spann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Henrique · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ryan SpannRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Arjan BhullarRating 5.5Decision
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · KO · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Sub · R3
Christian ColomboRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · Sub · R2
Dmitrii SmoliakovRating 5.2Submission
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
Spann · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.6Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Bogdan GuskovRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04