UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Montreal, Canada
17 Nov 2012
Welterweight
VS
53%
Riddle
47%
Maguire
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MR
Matthew Riddle
"Deep Waters"
8 – 3
6'1"76" reachSouthpaw40 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 18
JM
John Maguire
"The One"
24 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsSouthpaw69" reach5'9"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Riddle

This is a genuine toss-up — Riddle at 53% vs Maguire at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Riddle has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Riddle
Maguire
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
69"
40+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Riddle
Maguire
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
16.0
45.6
Performance Avg
38.3
29
Quality of Victory
37
88
Momentum Score
50
Riddle
Maguire
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.5
43%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
11
3
Body
0
9
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance11
9Clinch2
0Ground0
Riddle
Maguire
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Riddle
Maguire
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
94
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12 fights
Chin rating based on
5/33 fights
Riddle
Maguire
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
50
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Riddle
Maguire
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Riddle
Maguire
Striking2.8 / 0.8Volume7.1 / 4.8Grappling1.7 / 5.2Wrestling1.2 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure3.1 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Riddle
Strike Zones
Maguire
Riddle
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY9LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Maguire
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY9LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Riddle targets the head (43% of attacks) — Maguire absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Maguire targets the head (85% of attacks) — Riddle absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Riddle
RND
Maguire
0/0R00/0

Riddle · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W2008-062009-112010-122012-11
WinLossTrend

Maguire · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L5.5L2011-112012-042012-092012-112013-06
WinLossTrend

Riddle · Last 5

Upcoming
Che Mills
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
John MaguireRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
Upcoming
Chris Clements
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
Henry MartinezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02
L · Dec · R3
Lance BenoistRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09

Maguire · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mitch ClarkeRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
L · Dec · R3
Matthew RiddleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
L · Dec · R3
John HathawayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · Sub · R2
DaMarques JohnsonRating 5.2
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
W · Dec · R3
Justin EdwardsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11

News & Media

Matthew Riddle · John Maguire
← Back to fights