UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
Saitama, Japan
25 Feb 2012
Bantamweight
VS
54%
Mizugaki
46%
Cariaso
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TM
Takeya Mizugaki
21 – 11
5'7"69" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
CC
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
17 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsSouthpaw64" reach5'3"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mizugaki

This is a genuine toss-up — Mizugaki at 54% vs Cariaso at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Mizugaki throws more volume but Cariaso connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Mizugaki's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cariaso has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mizugaki
Cariaso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'3"
69"+
Reach
64"
42+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
14.0
40.1
Performance Avg
39.1
29
Quality of Victory
29
98
Momentum Score
45
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
38%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
6
5
Body
7
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance2
7Clinch12
4Ground0
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
68
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
14%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mizugaki
Cariaso
Striking2.4 / 2.5Volume8.1 / 7.9Grappling2.1 / 2.1Wrestling1.5 / 1.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.6 / 2.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
Mizugaki
Strike Zones
Cariaso
Mizugaki
Attacking
6HEAD5BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD7BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Cariaso
Attacking
6HEAD7BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD5BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (55% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Cariaso targets the body (50% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mizugaki
RND
Cariaso
0/0R00/0

Mizugaki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W5.5L5.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.0L4.5W2.6L1.5L2011-032012-112014-052016-082016-12
WinLossTrend

Cariaso · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L7.0L5.5L2011-012012-072014-022015-10
WinLossTrend

Mizugaki · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09

Cariaso · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7
Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02

News & Media

Takeya Mizugaki · Chris Cariaso
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