METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
Saitama, Japan
25 Feb 2012
Bantamweight
VS
54%
Mizugaki
46%
Cariaso
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Chris CariasowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Takeya Mizugaki · UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mizugaki
→
Actual result
Cariaso wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Mizugaki at 54% vs Cariaso at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Mizugaki's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cariaso has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MizugakiCariaso
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'3"
69"+
Reach
64"
42+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
14.0
40.1
Performance Avg
39.1
29
Quality of Victory
29
98
Momentum Score
45
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.6
Style: Pressure
2.6
8.1
Style: Volume
7.9
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
6
5
Body
7
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance2
7Clinch12
4Ground0
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
68
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
14%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mizugaki
Cariaso
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
MizugakiCariaso
Strike Zones
Mizugaki
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedCariaso
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (55% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Cariaso targets the body (50% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mizugaki
RND
Cariaso
0/0R00/0
Mizugaki · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtKO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingSubmission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzKO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoDecision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonSubmission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezDecision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02