UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne
Berlin, Germany
20 Jun 2015
Bantamweight
VS
74%
Lapilus
26%
Sasaki
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lapilus
Lapilus is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sasaki has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Lapilus has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sasaki has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lapilus
Sasaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
73"+
Reach
71"
34+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Lapilus
Sasaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.7
17.8
48.0
Performance Avg
48.2
30
Quality of Victory
51
85
Momentum Score
46
Lapilus
Sasaki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
1
2
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Lapilus
Sasaki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lapilus
Sasaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
40
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Lapilus
Sasaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
46
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Lapilus
Sasaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
17%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lapilus
Sasaki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
8.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
LapilusSasaki
Strike Zones
Lapilus
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSasaki
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lapilus targets the head (82% of attacks) — Sasaki absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Sasaki targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Lapilus absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lapilus
RND
Sasaki
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lapilus · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Sasaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Lapilus · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Farid BasharatRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Caolan LoughranRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Leandro IssaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
Sasaki · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R2
Jenel LausaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06
L · Sub · R1
Jussier FormigaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
W · Sub · R2
Justin ScogginsRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02