UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Ottawa, Canada
18 Jun 2016
Welterweight
VS
82%
Covington
18%
Meunier
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 0:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Covington
Covington is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Covington has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Covington throws more volume but Meunier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Covington
Meunier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Covington
Meunier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.2
13.3
53.2
Performance Avg
35.0
42
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
46
Covington
Meunier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.7
38%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Covington
Meunier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Covington
Meunier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
2/9 fights
Covington
Meunier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Covington
Meunier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Covington
Meunier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
CovingtonMeunier
Strike Zones
Covington
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMeunier
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (80% of attacks) — Meunier absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Meunier targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Covington
RND
Meunier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Meunier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Meunier · Last 2
W · Dec · R3
Richard WalshRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Sub · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06