UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
Kallang, Singapore
26 Oct 2019
Lightweight
VS
70%
Johnson
30%
Ray
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
SR
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
23 – 9
Well-Rounded36 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Johnson

Johnson is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ray has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ray has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Johnson
Ray
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
70"
39
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Johnson
Ray
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
15.4
42.5
Performance Avg
46.0
38
Quality of Victory
34
35
Momentum Score
46
Johnson
Ray
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.0
39%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
32
2
Body
1
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
14Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground28
Johnson
Ray
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Ray
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
11/32 fights
Johnson
Ray
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
46
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Johnson
Ray
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
29%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Ray
Striking4.8 / 4.1Volume6.0 / 7.0Grappling1.5 / 1.7Wrestling1.1 / 1.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Johnson
Strike Zones
Ray
Johnson
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
32HEAD1BODY4LEGS37 absorbed
Ray
Attacking
32HEAD1BODY4LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (79% of attacks) — Ray absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Ray targets the head (86% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Ray
0/0R00/0

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Ray · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.2W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W1.6L4.6W2015-042016-092017-072019-062019-10
WinLossTrend

Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Ray · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Leonardo SantosRating 1.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Jessin AyariRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Paul FelderRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07

News & Media

Michael Johnson · Stevie Ray
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