UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Miami, USA
8 Apr 2023
Welterweight
VS
51%
Holland
49%
Ponzinibbio
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:16
KH
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29 – 15
6'3"81" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 47
Santiago
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
31 – 9
Striker39 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Holland

This is a genuine toss-up — Holland at 51% vs Ponzinibbio at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Ponzinibbio throws more volume but Holland connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Holland's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ponzinibbio has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Holland
Ponzinibbio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
81"+
Reach
73"
33+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holland
Ponzinibbio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.0
45.7
49.3
Performance Avg
50.5
44
Quality of Victory
44
51
Momentum Score
46
Holland
Ponzinibbio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
6
2
Body
1
6
Leg
9
RangeRange
13Distance16
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Holland
Ponzinibbio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holland
Ponzinibbio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
4
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/44 fights
Chin rating based on
20/40 fights
Holland
Ponzinibbio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
46
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Holland
Ponzinibbio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
58%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
6
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holland
Ponzinibbio
Striking4.3 / 7.0Volume3.6 / 4.5Grappling3.8 / 1.0Wrestling2.6 / 0.7Submission3.8 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 5.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Holland
Strike Zones
Ponzinibbio
Holland
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY6LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY9LEGS16 absorbed
Ponzinibbio
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY9LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY6LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holland targets the head (43% of attacks) — Ponzinibbio absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Ponzinibbio targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holland
RND
Ponzinibbio
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Holland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W4.1L6.4W6.7W4.5W5.0W5.0W5.8L6.3L5.2W5.3W3.4L3.9L6.0W5.8W7.0L6.3L6.0W2.9L2.5L5.6W6.7W6.4L7.3L5.4W2018-082020-092022-092024-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Ponzinibbio · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5L5.0W5.6W2.8L5.0W5.2W4.9W4.5W6.1W4.5W6.0W2.3L5.1W6.5L6.1L5.5W4.6L6.5L6.3W4.9L2013-112016-042018-112022-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Holland · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

Ponzinibbio · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Carlston HarrisRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · KO · R3
Kevin HollandRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
W · KO · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

News & Media

Kevin Holland · Santiago Ponzinibbio
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