UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Barueri, Brazil
20 Dec 2014
Middleweight
VS
92%
Sarafian
8%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sarafian
Sarafian is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sarafian has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 55 points.
Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sarafian's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Sarafian
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
73"
Reach
43
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sarafian
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.0
1.6
46.0
Performance Avg
0.0
55
Quality of Victory
0
59
Momentum Score
0
Sarafian
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
57%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
4
2
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Sarafian
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sarafian
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
56
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/16 fights
Chin rating based on
2/10 fights
Sarafian
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Sarafian
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sarafian
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SarafianSantos
Strike Zones
Sarafian
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSantos
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sarafian targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (80% of attacks) — Sarafian absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sarafian
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Sarafian · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.1WinLossTrend
Sarafian · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Oluwale BamgboseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · KO · R2
Antonio Dos SantosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
L · Sub · R1
Kiichi KunimotoRating 1.5Submission
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Sub · R1
Eddie MendezRating 5Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
Santos · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Scott AskhamRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06
L · KO · R2
Daniel SarafianRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12