UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Manchester, United Kingdom
27 Jul 2024
Welterweight
VS
94%
Patterson
6%
Crosbie
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Patterson
Patterson is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 65 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Patterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 57 points.
Crosbie has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Crosbie has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Patterson
Crosbie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
78"+
Reach
70"
30+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Patterson
Crosbie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.2
4.3
60.9
Performance Avg
0.0
57
Quality of Victory
0
85
Momentum Score
0
Patterson
Crosbie
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
6.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
64%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
9Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Patterson
Crosbie
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Patterson
Crosbie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Patterson
Crosbie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Patterson
Crosbie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Patterson
Crosbie
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
PattersonCrosbie
Strike Zones
Patterson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCrosbie
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Patterson targets the head (89% of attacks) — Crosbie absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Crosbie targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Patterson absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Patterson
RND
Crosbie
0/0R00/0
Patterson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Crosbie · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.1WinLossTrend
Patterson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Trey WatersRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Danny BarlowRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Kiefer CrosbieRating 5Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Yohan LainesseRating 5Submission
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
Crosbie · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Taiyilake NuerajiRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Sub · R1
Sam PattersonRating 3.2Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Sub · R1
Kevin JoussetRating 2.2Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09