METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Manchester, United Kingdom
27 Jul 2024
Welterweight
VS
94%
Patterson
6%
Crosbie
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:50
★ Official Result
Sam PattersonwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:50
def. Kiefer Crosbie · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Patterson
→
Actual result
Patterson wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Patterson is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 68 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Patterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 57 points.
Risk flags
Crosbie has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PattersonCrosbie
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Patterson
Crosbie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
78"+
Reach
70"
30+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Patterson
Crosbie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
72.6
4.3
62.5
Performance Avg
0.0
57
Quality of Victory
0
98
Momentum Score
0
Patterson
Crosbie
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
9.1
Style: Pressure
0.0
1.4
Style: Volume
0.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
9Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Patterson
Crosbie
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Patterson
Crosbie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Patterson
Crosbie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Patterson
Crosbie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Patterson
Crosbie
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
PattersonCrosbie
Strike Zones
Patterson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCrosbie
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Patterson targets the head (89% of attacks) — Crosbie absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Crosbie targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Patterson absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Patterson
RND
Crosbie
0/0R00/0
Patterson · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Trey WatersKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Danny BarlowKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Kiefer CrosbieSubmission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Crosbie · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Taiyilake NuerajiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Sub · R1
Sam PattersonSubmission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Sub · R1
Kevin JoussetSubmission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09