UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Lightweight
VS
88%
Martin
12%
Olivieri
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:02
AR
Anthony Rocco Martin
17 – 6
6'0"73" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
FO
Felipe Olivieri
14 – 5
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox5'9"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Martin

Martin is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Martin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.

Olivieri has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Martin's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Martin
Olivieri
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
73"
Reach
36+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Martin
Olivieri
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
2.5
45.3
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
65
Momentum Score
0
Martin
Olivieri
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
37%
Strike Accuracy
57%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
1
Body
7
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
12Distance17
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Martin
Olivieri
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Martin
Olivieri
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
1/19 fights
Martin
Olivieri
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
0
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Martin
Olivieri
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Martin
Olivieri
Striking2.3 / 0.0Volume5.6 / 0.0Grappling4.0 / 0.0Wrestling2.8 / 0.0Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure4.9 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Martin
Strike Zones
Olivieri
Martin
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD7BODY5LEGS17 absorbed
Olivieri
Attacking
5HEAD7BODY5LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Martin targets the head (85% of attacks) — Olivieri absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Olivieri targets the body (41% of attacks) — Martin absorbs 41% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Martin
RND
Olivieri
0/0R00/0

Martin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L3.7L5.0W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5W6.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.1L2014-022016-012018-042019-062020-06
WinLossTrend

Martin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · Dec · R3
Ramazan EmeevRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Sergio MoraesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12

Olivieri · Last 1

L · Sub · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4
Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01

News & Media

Anthony Rocco Martin · Felipe Olivieri
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