UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
London, United Kingdom
22 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
38%
Diakiese
62%
Alvarez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:26
MD
Marc Diakiese
"Bonecrusher"
17 – 7
5'10"73" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Joel
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23 – 4
Pressure Fighter33 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alvarez

Alvarez holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Diakiese has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alvarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Diakiese's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvarez has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Diakiese
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+77"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Diakiese
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.3
60.9
41.2
Performance Avg
59.7
33
Quality of Victory
51
88
Momentum Score
59
Diakiese
Alvarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
57%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance6
0Clinch2
0Ground3
Diakiese
Alvarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diakiese
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/24 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Diakiese
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
59
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Diakiese
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
88%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Diakiese
Alvarez
Striking3.6 / 6.5Volume7.1 / 2.5Grappling1.8 / 3.3Wrestling1.3 / 2.3Submission0.0 / 3.8Pressure3.4 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Diakiese
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Diakiese
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD5BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Alvarez
Attacking
5HEAD5BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Diakiese targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (45% of attacks) — Diakiese absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Diakiese
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0

Diakiese · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L4.9L6.2L4.5W5.0W6.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W5.6L4.0L6.1W2016-102017-122020-072022-122023-11
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.4L5.4W6.3W6.0W6.0W5.0L2019-022020-102023-072025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Diakiese · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Kaue FernandesRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
L · Sub · R2
Joel AlvarezRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

News & Media

Marc Diakiese · Joel Alvarez
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