UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Nashville, USA
22 Apr 2017
Flyweight
VS
25%
Ortiz
75%
Moreno
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:06
DO
Dustin Ortiz
19 – 8
5'5"65" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
Brandon
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moreno

Moreno is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Ortiz throws more volume but Moreno connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Moreno has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ortiz
Moreno
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
65"
Reach
+70"
37
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ortiz
Moreno
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
52.8
47.8
Performance Avg
52.5
42
Quality of Victory
47
45
Momentum Score
54
Ortiz
Moreno
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
1
Body
4
6
Leg
5
RangeRange
9Distance9
0Clinch3
1Ground5
Ortiz
Moreno
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ortiz
Moreno
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
20/33 fights
Ortiz
Moreno
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
54
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Ortiz
Moreno
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
46%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortiz
Moreno
Striking6.1 / 3.0Volume5.1 / 4.9Grappling1.2 / 3.3Wrestling0.8 / 2.3Submission0.0 / 2.7Pressure5.2 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Ortiz
Strike Zones
Moreno
Ortiz
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY6LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD4BODY5LEGS17 absorbed
Moreno
Attacking
8HEAD4BODY5LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY6LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortiz targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Moreno targets the head (47% of attacks) — Ortiz absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortiz
RND
Moreno
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ortiz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W3.6L5.0W5.8W5.2W5.5L2013-112014-112016-122018-072019-01
WinLossTrend

Moreno · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.0W4.5W5.2W5.5L6.8L5.4W4.5W5.8W6.3W6.6L6.1W5.3W6.8L6.3L5.8W5.1W4.5L6.2L2016-102019-122022-072025-032026-02
WinLossTrend

Ortiz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · KO · R1
Matheus NicolauRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
W · KO · R1
Hector SandovalRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04

Moreno · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

News & Media

Dustin Ortiz · Brandon Moreno
← Back to fights