★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Welterweight
VS
48%
Usman
52%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Kamaru
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21 – 4
6'0"76" reachSwitch39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Colby
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
17 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Covington

This is a genuine toss-up — Usman at 48% vs Covington at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Usman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Usman
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
72"
39
Age
+38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Usman
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
61.2
61.2
Performance Avg
53.2
46
Quality of Victory
42
55
Momentum Score
100
Usman
Covington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
38%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
18
10
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance20
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Usman
Covington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.6
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Usman
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Usman
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
42%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
11
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Usman
Covington
Striking4.2 / 3.9Volume7.2 / 6.1Grappling2.1 / 2.7Wrestling1.5 / 1.9Submission0.6 / 1.7Pressure4.7 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Usman
Strike Zones
Covington
Usman
Attacking
14HEAD10BODY0LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Covington
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD10BODY0LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (58% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (86% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Usman
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Usman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.6W4.5W4.7W5.6W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.8W4.5W5.5W5.1W5.8W5.1L6.6L7.4L5.7W2015-072017-092019-122022-082025-06
WinLossTrend

Covington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W5.5W4.5W1.7L5.5W6.1W4.9W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.8W5.1L5.5W6.6L4.5W6.6L5.9L2014-082016-082019-082023-122024-12
WinLossTrend

Usman · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

Covington · Last 5

L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

News & Media

Kamaru Usman · Colby Covington
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