UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
Los Angeles, USA
28 Feb 2015
Women's Bantamweight
VS
56%
Pennington
44%
Holm
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pennington
This is a genuine toss-up — Pennington at 56% vs Holm at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pennington's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holm has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pennington
Holm
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
67"
Reach
+69"
37+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pennington
Holm
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.8
37.1
46.8
Performance Avg
46.5
32
Quality of Victory
42
80
Momentum Score
30
Pennington
Holm
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
42%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
5
0
Body
9
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
15Distance10
1Clinch6
1Ground0
Pennington
Holm
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.7
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
2.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pennington
Holm
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
46
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Pennington
Holm
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
30
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Pennington
Holm
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
23%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pennington
Holm
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
PenningtonHolm
Strike Zones
Pennington
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedHolm
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the head (71% of attacks) — Holm absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Holm targets the body (56% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pennington
RND
Holm
0/0R00/0
Pennington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Holm · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 7Decision
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L · Sub · R2
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Upcoming
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