METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Chicago, USA
8 Jun 2019
Lightweight
VS
62%
Ferguson
38%
Cerrone
Win Probability
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsR2 · 5:00
def. Donald Cerrone · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
Pre-fight analysis
Ferguson holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Cerrone has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonCerrone
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
76"+
Reach
73"
42+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
28.2
54.2
Performance Avg
53.0
49
Quality of Victory
47
52
Momentum Score
63
Ferguson
Cerrone
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
5.6
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
6.7
3.4
Style: Volume
3.7
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
10 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
15
11
Body
9
7
Leg
6
RangeRange
52Distance30
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Cerrone
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.6
6
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
7
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Ferguson
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
63
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Ferguson
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
70%
3
KO / TKO Wins
10
6
Submission Wins
6
6
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
FergusonCerrone
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
52 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
52 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (65% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerSubmission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01