UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Chicago, USA
8 Jun 2019
Lightweight
VS
62%
Ferguson
38%
Cerrone
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferguson
Ferguson holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Cerrone has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
76"+
Reach
73"
42+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
28.2
54.2
Performance Avg
53.0
49
Quality of Victory
47
52
Momentum Score
63
Ferguson
Cerrone
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
15
11
Body
9
7
Leg
6
RangeRange
52Distance30
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Cerrone
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
7
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Ferguson
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
63
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Ferguson
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
70%
3
KO / TKO Wins
10
6
Submission Wins
6
6
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
FergusonCerrone
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
52 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
52 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (65% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Sub · R3
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L · Sub · R4
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L · KO · R2
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Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
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L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
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Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R1
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