UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Las Vegas, USA
18 Jan 2020
Lightweight
VS
25%
Pettis
75%
Ferreira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferreira
Ferreira is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Ferreira throws more volume but Pettis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pettis's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferreira has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pettis
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pettis
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
55.1
52.6
Performance Avg
50.7
51
Quality of Victory
45
72
Momentum Score
87
Pettis
Ferreira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance2
1Clinch0
0Ground3
Pettis
Ferreira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pettis
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/34 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Pettis
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
87
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Pettis
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
70%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pettis
Ferreira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
PettisFerreira
Strike Zones
Pettis
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedFerreira
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pettis targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (80% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pettis
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Ferreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Ferreira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12