UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Middleweight
VS
43%
Sonnen
57%
Okami
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CS
Chael Sonnen
29 – 15
6'1"73" reachSouthpaw49 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
YO
Yushin Okami
"Thunder"
34 – 12
Well-Rounded44 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Okami

This is a genuine toss-up — Sonnen at 43% vs Okami at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Okami throws more volume but Sonnen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sonnen's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Okami has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sonnen
Okami
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
73"
Reach
+75"
49
Age
+44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Sonnen
Okami
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.8
16.7
40.4
Performance Avg
46.5
34
Quality of Victory
33
45
Momentum Score
78
Sonnen
Okami
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
6
1
Body
0
13
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance6
10Clinch0
2Ground0
Sonnen
Okami
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.0
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sonnen
Okami
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
16
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/44 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Sonnen
Okami
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
78
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Sonnen
Okami
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sonnen
Okami
Striking1.0 / 4.2Volume6.7 / 6.5Grappling4.0 / 1.5Wrestling2.8 / 1.1Submission2.9 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 4.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Sonnen
Strike Zones
Okami
Sonnen
Attacking
16HEAD1BODY13LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Okami
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD1BODY13LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sonnen targets the head (53% of attacks) — Okami absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Okami targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sonnen absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sonnen
RND
Okami
0/0R00/0

Sonnen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0102.8L4.5W2.8L1.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L5.2W4.5W2.1L3.3L5.0W1.5L2005-102009-052011-102013-082013-11
WinLossTrend

Okami · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5W5.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L4.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L4.0L5.2W4.5W4.5W1.5L2.1L4.5W5.5L2006-082008-032011-082017-092018-12
WinLossTrend

Sonnen · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Rashad EvansRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
W · Sub · R1
Mauricio RuaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · KO · R1
Jon JonesRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · KO · R2
Anderson SilvaRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01

Okami · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Dhiego LimaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 2.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Jacare SouzaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · 2013-03

News & Media

Chael Sonnen · Yushin Okami
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