UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Las Vegas, USA
14 Mar 2026
Bantamweight
VS
42%
Lacerda
58%
Sosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Luan
Luan Lacerda
13 – 4
5'7"71" reachOrthodox33 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 44
Hecher
Hecher Sosa
"Guanche Warrior"
15 – 1
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sosa

This is a genuine toss-up — Lacerda at 42% vs Sosa at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lacerda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Sosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Lacerda
Sosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
71"+
Reach
70"
33
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lacerda
Sosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.0
60.8
39.7
Performance Avg
55.0
50
Quality of Victory
25
22
Momentum Score
100
Lacerda
Sosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
49%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
27
7
Body
10
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
18Distance34
2Clinch6
0Ground0
Lacerda
Sosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lacerda
Sosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/17 fights
Chin rating based on
1/16 fights
Lacerda
Sosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
100
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Lacerda
Sosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lacerda
Sosa
Striking0.5 / 2.0Volume0.5 / 10.0Grappling8.0 / 2.4Wrestling5.6 / 1.7Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.8 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
10.0
Lacerda
Strike Zones
Sosa
Lacerda
Attacking
11HEAD7BODY2LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD10BODY3LEGS40 absorbed
Sosa
Attacking
27HEAD10BODY3LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD7BODY2LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lacerda targets the head (55% of attacks) — Sosa absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Sosa targets the head (68% of attacks) — Lacerda absorbs 68% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lacerda
RND
Sosa
0/0R00/0

Lacerda · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L3.8L5.2W6.8L2023-012023-062025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Lacerda · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Hecher SosaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Saimon OliveiraRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R2
Da'Mon BlackshearRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01

Sosa · Last 1

W · Dec · R3
Luan LacerdaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03

News & Media

Luan Lacerda · Hecher Sosa
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