UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
New York City, USA
3 Nov 2018
Heavyweight
VS
30%
Wieczorek
70%
Lima
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lima
Lima is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lima has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Lima has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lima has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Wieczorek
Lima
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'1"
81"+
Reach
75"
34+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wieczorek
Lima
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.5
47.3
49.0
Performance Avg
53.8
37
Quality of Victory
49
83
Momentum Score
59
Wieczorek
Lima
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.6
42%
Strike Accuracy
60%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Wieczorek
Lima
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wieczorek
Lima
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
16
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/12 fights
Chin rating based on
18/32 fights
Wieczorek
Lima
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
59
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Wieczorek
Lima
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
73%
0
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wieczorek
Lima
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
WieczorekLima
Strike Zones
Wieczorek
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedLima
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wieczorek targets the head (33% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Lima targets the head (67% of attacks) — Wieczorek absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wieczorek
RND
Lima
0/0R00/0
Wieczorek · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Lima · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Wieczorek · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 6.1Decision
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
W · Sub · R2
Arjan BhullarRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony HamiltonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
Lima · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05