UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
29 Oct 2011
Bantamweight
VS
84%
Jorgensen
16%
Curran
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jorgensen
Jorgensen is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jorgensen has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Jorgensen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jorgensen's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jorgensen
Curran
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
66"
Reach
+69"
43+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jorgensen
Curran
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.1
2.6
37.9
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
54
Momentum Score
0
Jorgensen
Curran
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
38%
Strike Accuracy
32%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
13
3
Body
7
7
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance18
5Clinch4
0Ground0
Jorgensen
Curran
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jorgensen
Curran
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/54 fights
Jorgensen
Curran
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Jorgensen
Curran
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jorgensen
Curran
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
JorgensenCurran
Strike Zones
Jorgensen
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedCurran
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jorgensen targets the head (55% of attacks) — Curran absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Curran targets the head (59% of attacks) — Jorgensen absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jorgensen
RND
Curran
0/0R00/0
Jorgensen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Curran · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Jorgensen · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezRating 2.8KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Manvel GamburyanRating 5.5Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Wilson ReisRating 1.5Submission
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06
L · Sub · R1
Jussier FormigaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · 2014-03
Curran · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Johnny EduardoRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · Dec · R3
Scott JorgensenRating 5.5Decision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
L · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 46: Supernatural · 2004-01