UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Miami, USA
9 Mar 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
43%
Cerminara
57%
Barber
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barber
This is a genuine toss-up — Cerminara at 43% vs Barber at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barber has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Barber has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cerminara's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerminara
Barber
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
65"
37
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Cerminara
Barber
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.2
54.8
40.9
Performance Avg
53.3
25
Quality of Victory
38
85
Momentum Score
65
Cerminara
Barber
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.1
35%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
21
4
Body
8
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
16Distance19
4Clinch11
0Ground1
Cerminara
Barber
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerminara
Barber
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/24 fights
Chin rating based on
13/18 fights
Cerminara
Barber
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
65
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Cerminara
Barber
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerminara
Barber
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
CerminaraBarber
Strike Zones
Cerminara
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedBarber
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerminara targets the head (75% of attacks) — Barber absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Barber targets the head (68% of attacks) — Cerminara absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerminara
RND
Barber
0/0R00/0
Cerminara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Barber · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Cerminara · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberRating 6.5Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Manon FiorotRating 7.1Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Amanda RibasRating 4.6Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
W · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
Barber · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alexa GrassoRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Karine SilvaRating 5.7Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 4.8Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · KO · R2
Amanda RibasRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 4.9Decision
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