UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Charlotte, USA
13 May 2023
Heavyweight
VS
60%
Williams
40%
Sherman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Karl
Karl Williams
10 – 2
6'3"79" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Chase
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16 – 12
Striker2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Williams

Williams holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Sherman has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Sherman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Striking split: Sherman throws more volume but Williams connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sherman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Williams
Sherman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
79"+
Reach
78"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Williams
Sherman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.6
30.1
45.0
Performance Avg
38.4
25
Quality of Victory
46
78
Momentum Score
46
Williams
Sherman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.4
55%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
15
2
Body
9
4
Leg
6
RangeRange
28Distance23
0Clinch7
0Ground0
Williams
Sherman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Williams
Sherman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Williams
Sherman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
46
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Williams
Sherman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Williams
Sherman
Striking1.5 / 8.0Volume9.5 / 2.5Grappling2.4 / 0.6Wrestling1.7 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.3 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
9.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Williams
Strike Zones
Sherman
Williams
Attacking
22HEAD2BODY4LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD9BODY6LEGS30 absorbed
Sherman
Attacking
15HEAD9BODY6LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD2BODY4LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Williams targets the head (79% of attacks) — Sherman absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Sherman targets the head (50% of attacks) — Williams absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Williams
RND
Sherman
0/0R00/0

Williams · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W4.5W6.1W6.3L2023-032023-052024-032024-08
WinLossTrend

Sherman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.5L4.2L5.2W6.2L5.5L1.5L2.3L5.5W7.0L6.0L2016-082017-112021-042022-072023-05
WinLossTrend

Williams · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Jhonata DinizRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Justin TafaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03

Sherman · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
W · KO · R3
Jared VanderaaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Sub · R1
Jake CollierRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

News & Media

Karl Williams · Chase Sherman
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