METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Flyweight
VS
57%
Moreno
43%
Erceg
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Brandon MorenowinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Steve Erceg · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Moreno
→
Actual result
Moreno wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Moreno at 57% vs Erceg at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moreno has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Moreno's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Erceg has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MorenoErceg
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moreno
Erceg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
32
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreno
Erceg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.8
40.1
52.5
Performance Avg
40.8
47
Quality of Victory
31
54
Momentum Score
45
Moreno
Erceg
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
3.1
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
3.1
4.9
Style: Volume
7.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
17
3
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
18Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Moreno
Erceg
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moreno
Erceg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
52
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/33 fights
Chin rating based on
9/18 fights
Moreno
Erceg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
Moreno
Erceg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
20%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moreno
Erceg
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
MorenoErceg
Strike Zones
Moreno
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedErceg
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moreno targets the head (72% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Erceg targets the head (89% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moreno
RND
Erceg
0/0R00/0
Moreno · Last 5
Upcoming
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