UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Flyweight
VS
53%
Moreno
47%
Erceg
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Brandon
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23 – 10
5'7"70" reachOrthodox32 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 53
Steve
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
14 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moreno

This is a genuine toss-up — Moreno at 53% vs Erceg at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Moreno has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Erceg has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Moreno's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Moreno
Erceg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
32
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreno
Erceg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.8
46.4
52.5
Performance Avg
43.6
47
Quality of Victory
31
54
Momentum Score
60
Moreno
Erceg
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
17
3
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
18Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Moreno
Erceg
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moreno
Erceg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/33 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Moreno
Erceg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
60
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Moreno
Erceg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
20%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moreno
Erceg
Striking3.0 / 3.3Volume4.9 / 7.7Grappling3.3 / 1.9Wrestling2.3 / 1.3Submission2.7 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Moreno
Strike Zones
Erceg
Moreno
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY2LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD1BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Erceg
Attacking
17HEAD1BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY2LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Moreno targets the head (72% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Erceg targets the head (89% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Moreno
RND
Erceg
0/0R00/0

Moreno · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.0W4.5W5.2W5.5L6.8L5.4W4.5W5.8W6.3W6.6L6.1W5.3W6.8L6.3L5.8W5.1W4.5L6.2L2016-102019-122022-072025-032026-02
WinLossTrend

Erceg · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.9W5.4W6.8L2.4L6.4L5.3W4.6W2023-062024-032024-082025-082026-05
WinLossTrend

Moreno · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Erceg · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Brandon Moreno · Steve Erceg
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