UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Houston, USA
19 Oct 2013
Lightweight
VS
36%
Melendez
64%
Sanchez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sanchez
Sanchez holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Melendez has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Sanchez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Sanchez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sanchez has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Melendez
Sanchez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
73"+
Reach
72"
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Melendez
Sanchez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
7.0
12.7
20.7
Performance Avg
46.0
25
Quality of Victory
37
0
Momentum Score
20
Melendez
Sanchez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
30%
Strike Accuracy
39%
0.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
38
Head
15
2
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
38Distance20
1Clinch1
1Ground0
Melendez
Sanchez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Melendez
Sanchez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
14
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/30 fights
Chin rating based on
32/44 fights
Melendez
Sanchez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
20
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Melendez
Sanchez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
32%
0
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
13
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Melendez
Sanchez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
8.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
MelendezSanchez
Strike Zones
Melendez
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedSanchez
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Melendez targets the head (95% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Sanchez targets the head (71% of attacks) — Melendez absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Melendez
RND
Sanchez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Melendez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Sanchez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Melendez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6Decision
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 6Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Eddie AlvarezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Anthony PettisRating 2.1Submission
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
Sanchez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey GallRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig WhiteRating 4.5Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09